BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN 2 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Philly on large ESPN. DraftKings has some strong contests and that I look forward to pursuing the huge GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my first chair into it a few weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $30 prize, and then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
While I stack a struggle in cash games I want no less than 100 total points. Ideally much more like 150 or even more, but I’ll take 100-point floor together with all the guaranteed win. With Gaethje fights, we’re pretty much locked into that 100+ and we have seen his fights even total over 200 DK points. He is the perfect design for accruing DraftKings points and should we utilize Edson too, then we’re guaranteed a win and probably 150+ factors. Give me that all day. This is how I will be starting my money lineup and I shall work out the rest from there. I will take the loss because we do not need 6 wins in money games. 1st place and 5th place get paid the exact same in a 10-man double-up, therefore I’m not shooting first and I’d rather play it safer with my cash lineups.
GPP play of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This is not a sneaky play whatsoever but Barzola ought to be a terrific play if he shoots takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he has 36 takedowns. That’s exactly what we need on DraftKings. Every takedown is 5-points and he is able to rack up enough to score 100+ points. If he can score over 100 DK points again here at $8.2k he’s for sure going to win somebody $30k. I really do expect him to be chalky this week, but he has a lot of scoring possible I’d like to fade the chalk. I will likely be in accord with the field on ownership with my lineups, maybe overweight.
Underdog play of the week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I like Waterson here because she is the fighter that will be looking for takedowns in this fight. I believe she can find a number of she may have the ability to lock a submission if that’s the case. That is her ceiling in this fight, but I like her more for cash games because of her floor. I don’t see KK finishing Waterson, so I believe we get three complete rounds of scoring from her. Even in a loss she could place up 30-40 DK points and in money games which is fine. I’ll use her in GPPs also, but I do not think she submits KK. I’d guess she puts up around ~80 DK points in a decision win when she’s able to receive the victory.
Fade of this week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I’m spreading my vulnerability out on most of the favorites this week in GPPs however Mazo is the one I am interested in the least. I think the only way she outscores her 8.8k salary would be by getting another head kick KO. I don’t think that’s quite likely at all and I feel a decision win is most likely for her. I really don’t see her heading for any takedowns or obtaining many/any knockdowns, so I do not see how she scores tremendously in a decision win. I will have zero lineups using Mazo this week and if I was making 100 lineups I would still likely full fade . Hopefully it doesn’t burn me, but she is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) since May 19th on Premium Plays)