BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 9 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a lot of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at the $25k decoration, then I will likely take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Macy Chiasson — $9,400
Macy Chiasson is undoubtedly the safest play on the board this week and she has 100+ point upside down. She is a lock in my money games this week and that I actually don’t really see how she loses. I think a submission could be Moras’ best opportunity but she is not capable of finding the fight to the floor, so that I see her getting dominated on the feet before the ref measures. She is by far my favourite play in the $9k selection and she’s a -750 on the gambling line. I like playing it safer in cash games and I think she is a safe triumph this week.
GPP drama of this week — Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is a simple one for me this week and he will be the chalk of this week. I’ll continue to be obese on Merab though. His style is exactly what we want on DraftKings. He’s got a nonstop pace and he shoots for takedowns frequently. He’s 22 landed takedowns in his initial 3 UFC fights which is his very best route to success in this matchup too. Even with 2 losses on his album from those 3 conflicts, he averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This is not my GPP drama of the week because I know he is going to win, I only know IF he wins he will score highly, and that he should easily reach value on an $8.6k price .
Underdog play of the week — Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone — $7,800
I must select Cowboy as the puppy of the week. His struggles are always action packed along with the winner of this fight will definitely be about the first-place lineup. Especially if it is Cowboy. He almost always scores over 100 points in his wins and he has 5-rounds to work with here. I don’t find a circumstance in which he wins and doesn’t end up on the $25k lineup. I will be overweight on Cowboy this week, however this really is an all-in struggle for me. If Cowboy is not in a one of my lineups, you then will see Iaquinta there. I will be thicker on the Cowboy side though and I think he gets the work done by submission.
Fade of this week — Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be very surprised to see Theodorou on the 1st place lineup this week. I would be surprised to see him get even 10x his $8k price tag and that is why I will have zero lineups together with him this week. Not counting his fight with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins before that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is simply bad for DraftKings. He is going to need to knock Brunson out whether he is going to score tremendously and that he isn’t a power puncher. I think you’re better off carrying Elias from TKO on the betting line at +870. I really don’t see any reason to spend in this week in GPPs because he doesn’t have the ceiling we would like to win that big $25k. I think he is fine in cash games as a 65-point win would not kill us . However he is a simple fade of the week for me this Saturday.
Thanks for reading this and great luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 71-45 for +233.79un (+$23,379) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)